PENGARUH HARGA MINYAK INTERNASIONAL, KURS DAN PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO TERHADAP IMPOR PRODUK MINYAK BUMI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2004-2013

TOBING, NIKO JONATHAN (2015) PENGARUH HARGA MINYAK INTERNASIONAL, KURS DAN PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO TERHADAP IMPOR PRODUK MINYAK BUMI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2004-2013. S1 thesis, Universitas Negeri Jakarta.

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Abstract

ABSTRACT NIKO JONATHAN TOBING. The Influence Of International Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Gross Domestic Product On Import Of Oil Product In Indonesia Period 2004-2013. Faculty of Economic State University of Jakarta. 2015. This research purpose is to find out the influence of international oil prices, exchange rates and Gross Domestic Product on import of oil product in Indonesia, either partially or simultaneously. This study uses data development begins first quarter (January-March) of 2004 until the fourth quarter (October to December) of 2013. The method used is exposed facto by the analysis of time series for 40 quarters. The data analysis technique used is multiple linear regression, the classic assumption test, and test hypotheses consisting of t test and F test. Based on the research results of multiple regression, linear equation as follows: Import = 7766,379 – 0,025 P + 2,640 ER + 0,127 GDP. In addition, it is known that there is a partial effect of international oil price variable with oil imports variable, and GDP with oil imports variable. Can be seen from the results of data analysis showed tcount of (-2,437) greater than ttable (-1,68) for the international oil price variable to oil imports variable. Partially GDP also affect the oil imports variable, it is seen from the results of data analysis showed tcount amounted to 4,213 greater than ttable of 1,68. But for a exchange rates variable no significant effect on oil imports variable. Simultaneously there is influence international oil prices, exchange rates and Gross Domestic Product on import of oil. Can be seen from the results of data analysis showed Fcount value of 10,720 is greater than the value of 2,80 as Ftable.

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