ANALISIS DETERMINAN EKSPOR MIGAS DAN NON MIGAS INDONESIA PADA PASAR JEPANG (TAHUN 2000-2012)

SEPTIANI, SEPTIANI (2013) ANALISIS DETERMINAN EKSPOR MIGAS DAN NON MIGAS INDONESIA PADA PASAR JEPANG (TAHUN 2000-2012). S1 thesis, Universitas Negeri Jakarta.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK SEPTIANI. Analysis of Determinants Value for Indonesia Oil and Gas as well as Non Oil and Gas Toward Japan Market (Year 2000-2012). Cooperative Economic Education, Economic and Administration, Economic, State University of Jakarta. 2013. This study aims to determine how much influence the effect of exchange rate, crude price, gross domestic product, and economic crisis to the value of oil and gas as well as non oil and gas toward Japan market with demand and supply analysis. The research used exposure facto method with correlational approach. The type of data used is time series over the past 13 years this data is quarterly, beginning in the first quarter 2000 to third quarter 2012, with the secondary data obtained from the Bank of Indonesia (BI), Dirjen Migas KESDM, and Statistics Indonesian (BPS). Processing data using SPSS 17.0 and Eviews 6.0 program. The results of data analysis techniques as follows: all of the variables in this study have met the requirements analysis (normally distributed and has a linear shape), as well as free from classical assumptions, namely autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity. Obtained multiple regression equations LnExs = 12,006 + 0,181 LnRER IU + 0,399 LnICP - 0,129 DcriI + 0,317 LnEx , LnExd = -2,189 + 0,245 LnRERJU + 0,403 LnPNR - 0,181 DcriJ + 0,672 LnEx–0,153 LnEx2, LnExNMs = 10,373 - 0,016 LnRER IU + 0,252 LnICP - 0,014 Dcri + 0,642 LnExNM1 - 0,160 LnEx NM2 , LnExNMd = -2,238 + 0,062 LnRER + 0,334 LnPNR - 0,079 Dcri J + 0,640 LnEx NM1, LnEx Ms JU = 13,386 + 0,613 LnRER + 0,648 LnICP - 0,366 Dcri I , LnEx Md = 0,658 + 0,200 LnRER + 0,367 LnPNR - 0,384 Dcri J + 0,428 LnEx 1 JU . Regression coefficient F-test significance value of 0.000 for all models of the figure is lower than alpha (0.05). This shows all the significant regression models simultaneously. While partially all significant independent variables except for the exchange rate of the yen against the total exports, exports of oil and gas, and non-oil and gas are not significant. Exchange rate and the economic crisis Indonesia and Japan are not significant for non-oil exports, as well as overall export demand and supply of non-oil exports of the previous two quarters are not significant in influencing Indonesian exports to Japan. Rated R Square of Ex s , Ex d , Ex NMs , Ex NMd , Ex Ms , Ex is equal to 0,845; 0,709; 0,818; 0,769; 0,642; 0,500, meaning that all the independent variables can explain the dependent variable of 84,5%; 70,9%; 81,8%; 76,9%; 64,2%; 50%. While the remaining 15,5%; 29,1%; 18,2%; 23,1%; 35,8%; 50% is explained by other variables. Keywords: export, exchange rate, crude price, gross domestic product, economic crisis, demand, and supply.

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